I always love it when the month ends on a weekend (even better when it’s a quarter end), because it allows us to take a very clean top down view of the major indexes using the TP charts I post everyday. The markets have been showing signs of strength we haven’t seen in awhile, but that hasn’t deterred nor diminished those looking for another big bear right around the corner. And, the could be right, but I prefer to let my charts guide me to such a decision. This top down view allows us to move from the 50,ooo foot view quickly down to an intraday chart. For all traders or investors at least one or two of these views can be helpful even if you don’t trade the indexes. Let’s dig in. (disregard the arrows charts, they are not meant as highlights).
Not much to argue with here as we start with the monthly view. $SPY has already left the station, $QQQ challenging now and $IWM still has a ways to go, but is giving a good effort since bottoming in February. This shows only $IWM was officially in a bear market by percentage decline, but I would say two years of this action worked off excesses in many stocks throughout the markets and could be qualified as a stealth bear market if it must be labeled (labels don’t usually help much). RSI did work off the overbought nature during this time period, but never threatened breaking down into a bear range even in the $IWM during this decline. In fact, $SPY $QQQ RSI never even lost 50.
On the Weekly time frame you get a better feel for just how much the $IWM underperformed over the last year, but it has also been the most aggressive off the lows in an attempt to play some catch up. RSI here did move into bear ranges last year and recently moved back into RSI bul ranges across the board. $IWM & $SPY are even close to hitting the Nitrous.
The daily charts are all sitting in RSI bull ranges, above the MA bands, on Nitrous and none are overbought at the moment. This momentum won’t last forever, so enjoy it while it’s here and stay attentive for signs it is waning.
Even drilling all the way down to the intraday view of the 65min charts you can see the recent sideways action in $SPY & $IWM are hardly bearish so far and helped work off the oscillator so another surge could certainly happen if we break out of these creeping ranges. $QQQ is doing its best to lead the way.
That is my view of where we are right here right now. It can change within just a few candles if the action changes, so there is no need for me to rush to judgement or attempt to anticipate when the buyers will take a break. Like I said above, enjoy it while it lasts and let your risk management plan take care of the rest.
Good Luck and I hope this helps!