Author Archives: Tommy

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Apple in the Carnage

Of course, Apple stock $AAPL gets plenty of coverage in the markets so usually it is well enough left alone, but looking through charts this weekend it struck me how well it held up during the recent waterfall, so I wanted to look closer.  Let’s look at 6 charts, 3 daily and 3 weekly that paint a decent picture of opportunity in $AAPL here if the markets can expand on this bounce.  There is even a chance for a new breakout if it gets enough momentum off these lows.  As with any trade plan you need to accept the risk plan before you start and structure things accordingly, which also sits pretty well here just a under 5% below current levels if generous, and a few spots to go even tighter.

Starting with the weekly charts we can see that the up trend line off the April lows while steep did hold on 1st approach this week. The bounce off the lows was enough to just keep the close in the upper STDev channel which is your sweet spot.  It is a little shaky though when it penetrates that much intra-week, but lets see where it goes. Overall the Bollinger bands are still rising and even potentially expanding, so it doesn’t look there was much price damage in the name by the end of the week.

We did see a good amount of volume this week showing the battle that took place. On the next chart you can see that volume surge better and fall in the  weekly OBV, but that indicator is still holding above the May breakout zone. While we are on volume, you can see this action happened near the bottom the VaP zone signified by the red line across the chart which also happens to be the bottom of the congestion zone and where the 13ema (yellow) showed up this week.  Apple ended closing not only above the 13ema, but made it all the way back above the 8ema both of which continue to rise as do most other moving averages on this chart.

Looking here, it seems pretty clear if we lose around 214 on weekly close it opens up the Kirby (volume vacuum or pocket) down to 190 area and then 170ish after that, so we don’t want to start that potential for a cascade.  It would be better to hold up here and not tempt things. The final weekly chart is the Cloud chart which is also continuing to point higher and not narrowing for now, but note the cloud support here a good bit lower.  It is not going to help all that much in the short term other than if the selloff continues and then we can look for longer support probably closer to that 190 areas unless it is an all out collapse, but not seeing signs of that here.

As we drill down to the daily we can see more about how this could potentially be traded and what levels look important. We start with the RSI chart which shows the daily held the RSI bull range low level of 40 almost exactly adn turned higher on Friday.  This is a solid start and was after Thursday’s high volume inverted hammer that stopped right at where I put the range low here.  Friday it gapped up and held onto those gains into the end of the day.  This also helped flatten the MACD and potential for a turn. Volume was not higher than Thursday but still over the 10day average on this chart

Moving into the volume indicators on the daily view below you can see the OBV is bouncing off the September lows as price test the red line that marks the last big VaP bar before the vacuum starts that goes down to around 208 and then and even larger VaP vacuum (definite Kirby) to the largest bar around 190 which is all the way back at the 200sma roughly 15% lower.  Along the way you have a gap near 210, which is why I thought that might be a decent close under stop for Intermediate to longer term trades in case this works.  And if you are a faster trader you could use a close under in the 216.5 zone just under the line with a hard stop below Thursday’s lows to prevent any big damage.

Again, it is not our goal to see the lows taken out since our trade plan is for it to hold here and move back higher, but there is an opportunity to flip into puts or short if we do start losing them. Ultimate goal if that were to happen would be the big gap down at 190 with the VaP bar right there to provide some support, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves here.

One final piece of support is the daily cloud chart where price stopped right at the top of the cloud in Wednesday’s big candle, gapped down below it Thursday and put in a doji before reversing Friday with a gap back higher out of the cloud.  This looks like a strong exit from the cloud and favors continuation at least in the short term.  Many like to look at the bottom of the cloud for support which is currently around 206 and rising under price pretty well.  So if we hold up a few more days it could be used as a close under stop for those who are watching daily.

I was prompted to look closer at $AAPL and other mega caps like $AMZN $FB $GOOGL and a few other from a conversation about leadership on social media. Which of all these start falling hard, it will definitely be a difficult weight to overcome, but not impossible. Currently,  the others look good or bad on their own characteristics, but $AAPL caught my eye as a fairly tight technical setup with multiple good stop areas for various trading styles; and a pretty good list of positive price action in the last couple of days during the markets swoon.  It is a name that is not particularly expensive when it comes to earnings metrics and Its options flow did get a couple of call sales in the last few days that put resistance above near 130 and 135, there is plenty of bullish notable call flow sitting from the last few months that can help fuel any breakout if the failed break down does propel this thing higher.

$AAPL may have paused over the last 6 weeks or so, but I have a hard time saying this one has lost its longer term trend or even leadership in tech over the this time period.  However, if (very big IF right here) we start breaking these levels I am fine changing my mind and think it could (but doesn’t have to) weigh a good bit on the markets as a whole due to size, so a quick short or put play here could work well.

Good Luck and I hope this helps!

If you like what you see, follow me on StockTwits or Twitter.
(All market data above are derived from Stockcharts.com, Esignal, and Reutersdatalink)
The information set forth here was obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy.  Neither the information, nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation by us of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the blog.  Full Disclaimer
There is no guarantee that the views expressed in this communication will become reality,  Investing in the stock market involves risk and potential loss of principal, Investment strategies should be thoroughly researched and understood before implementing and none of this should be construed as a recommendation

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Running Down the Triple Play

Pretty easy to see I don’t find much time to blog these days, but I do like it when Month or quarter end come at the end of a week as well.  It makes it easy to start at the top time frame and work our way down the charts to get an idea of where we currently are in the broad markets these follow both individually and in relation to one another.  August ended Friday so we will start with the Monthly charts this time.

It has been a while, so for a quick refresher on these charts check out RSI Chart Explained

Monthly

The monthly trend remains strong after pausing the 1st half of 2018, but now looks to be on the march again.  The RSIs are at or near 80 which should have us alert to changes and are likely to see more volatility up here, but they are not a sell sign in themselves.  I did read someone talking this week about selling once RSI moved over 70, and I couldn’t disagree more, especially on a time frame as long as monthly.  Indicators are for information and alerts price is better suited for actual signals.  It is good to see how this charts is moving and keep it in perspective that things are getting elevated but also moving in a strong trend at the moment.

Weekly

The weekly charts shows the strong trend on this level coming off the Winter pullback/volatility we saw. Coming down to this level you can see that the battle was fought and won by the bulls and we are in the midst of the extension that followed.  Currently the RSIs are  pointing higher but not particularly elevated.  CFGs are nearing the 100 level which is where we start paying more attention, but they can move all the way to the 140-150 level if things get goofy, so 100 again isn’t particularly out there.  $IWM $QQQ are well above their January peaks, but $SPY is just know moving above its level.  This has us on what for a failed breakout at this level which could usher in the seasonality everyone is talking about.  Especially with August being strong, the next drum beat has to be a ugly September and October.  I don’t think it has to happen as many do, so I am keeping my eyes open for an extension higher that keeps everyone off guard; but I do think it would be a decent scenario to see some weakness between Mid September and the elections to allow the markets some digestion time and maybe even a few backtests to strengthen the support zones below.

Daily

The Daily level looks set up more similar to the weekly charts.  Nice pattern breaks recently and a new leg higher. $IWM was the most defined and worked great after finding higher lows at the MA bands 3 times it finally went out the upper rail.  $IWM also finished the month on a strong note.  $SPY $QQQ ended in small consolidations right at the highs.  Nothing to get bearish about, but more digestion would be fine here as long as it stays contained.  While not fearing seasonality, it can be used as a piece of evidence to help guide and potentially adjust things like position sizing and stop placement during a slow period.  Again, we see the CFGs are at or above 100, but can stay up here a while or put in divergences before seeing a larger price top.  Worth noting again, multiple divergences are not uncommon on the upside, so making sure you have some other confirmation is a good idea.

65 minute

The 65 minute chart is the Intraday charts I use most and post when looking at market direction.  If trading very short term, then 5, 15, 30 minute might be worth a look, but they don’t really add value in this kind of analysis very often.  The current 65 min charts are all still in RSI bull ranges with mixed positioning to start the week.  $SPY $QQQ are digesting the strong recent runs since mid August. $IWM is moving too, but in a much more sloppy fashion.  It broke out strong mid August, but has been a battle ever since.  This was another place many were looking for a failed breakout the whole way and every time they felt like they might be getting a foothold, buyers showed back up and pushed $IWM back to highs. A quick look at it’s RSI shows the grinding nature of this move and also gives a good example of why we use RSI Range Rules instead of overbought/oversold signals.

This is just a quick review of how I see the markets going into the current week.  I also see strong breadth underlying these price charts which adds confidence to what we are seeing on the price charts.  This could certainly take a turn at any time change my view along with it, but as we sit now, markets are a leg that started in later July or early August and could persist a while if these dynamics remain in place.

Good Luck and I hope this helps!

If you like what you see, follow me on StockTwits or Twitter.
(All market data above are derived from Stockcharts.com, Esignal, and Reutersdatalink)
The information set forth here was obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy.  Neither the information, nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation by us of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the blog.  Full Disclaimer
There is no guarantee that the views expressed in this communication will become reality,  Investing in the stock market involves risk and potential loss of principal, Investment strategies should be thoroughly researched and understood before implementing and none of this should be construed as a recommendation

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Triple Play Mid Year Review

Once again we have one of those fun quarters where the dates line up on a weekend and we can take a top down view of how things stand. Those who follow my Triple Play Charts regularly on Stocktwits and Twitter know this as one of the momentum based trend gauges we use to guide us through the markets.  I post the same two charts every day which on one hand can get monotonous, but I feel the consistency keeps us updated on the ever changing view of the markets while also helping teach us the personality traits that can give clues in the future.  These periodic posts allow us to stack multiple time frames to get a sort of macro view from a technical perspective of the markets.

(for those new to these charts you can learn more about them here and here)

Quarterly (Index)

The Quarterly charts are made up of Indice since the ETFs don’t have enough data for a good quarterly RSI chart.  The current candles are still solidly bullish in strong RSI bull ranges.  While RSI are getting high, the only potential warning I see right here is the tail on $QQQ as we close out.  Not a lot to hang your hat on; and don’t forget is takes 3 full months to print another candle.  Overbought RSI is a reason to be paying more attention, but with CFGs all still below 100, there still is room higher for now.  Overbought can always become more overbought in strong trends.  However, for most of us, these charts are great for long term perspective and guidance, which for now is still sitting in a long term uptrend in all 3, but hard to trade off of in real life.

Monthly

Dropping down to the monthly ETF charts you see they are also in solid RSI bull ranges with sharp uptrends in $SPY & $QQQ while $IWM has been consolidating on this level much of the year.  However, that also leaves $IWM with a RSI in the sweet spot and set up pretty well if it can clear this current range.  $QQQ had the toughest month, but it was also after putting in the steepest ascent.  It could use some rest, but no not enough evidence yet on this level to expect much more than a normal consolidation/pullback to relieve some pressure.  There are larger divergences forming on this level and are noted, but rarely play out swiftly without a larger catalyst.

Weekly

After seeing the last two levels in solid trends albeit a little elevated in some areas, the weekly charts have already worked off a good bit of their excess without giving up a tremendous amount of ground in price or putting the RSI bull ranges in jeopardy.  all three have room before reaching the MA bands good opportunities for RSI Positive Reversals if the consolidations/pullbacks hold above them.  Again on this level we see the $IWM looks the best set up for a move higher, with $SPY and $QQQ trends stalling a bit after strong runs this spring, but not necessarily destined for strong moves lower. Keep an eye on how the action progresses from here, but so far so good as we move down the charts.

Daily

The daily level is where we start to notice the wear and tear on the trends for both the $SPY and $QQQ as they are testing some important support levels going into the 3rd quarter.  I left $IWM out since it hasn’t really been in a trend all year long even though it is positive after the 1st half.  All three are still holding the RSI bull ranges, so it is hard to get too bearish or throw in the towel as of yet, but the larger cap side is looking shaky as the MA bands are getting tested here.  Going back to $IWM it shows what can happen versus a strong rollover if the $SPY $QQQ do decide to digest the recent runs, but either can eat up intermediate term traders if they are not open to the potential and adjust accordingly.

65 minute

The intraday 65 minute view gets us close enough for most to the current battle to help shape how we approach next week, at least the early part.  $QQQ and $SPY charts show the battles they have been in with both struggling to hold the recent ranges.  This chart shows the month of June start to finish.  To the surprise of many the $IWM was actually the top performer for the month, and even all the way down on this level looks the strongest.  Not exactly strong, but relatively it definitely is set up the best to start the new quarter, again, at least for the 1st part of the week.  The shorter the timeframe of the chart the easier it is to flip the charts look, so as you look back up this list, keep that in mind and use this to help guide your outlook as you move into the 2nd half of 2017 this week.

Good Luck and I hope this helps!

If you like what you see, follow me on StockTwits or Twitter.
(All market data above are derived from Stockcharts.com, Esignal, and Reutersdatalink)
The information set forth here was obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy.  Neither the information, nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation by us of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the blog.  Full Disclaimer
There is no guarantee that the views expressed in this communication will become reality,  Investing in the stock market involves risk and potential loss of principal, Investment strategies should be thoroughly researched and understood before implementing and none of this should be construed as a recommendation

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The Nitrous Scan 6/23/2017

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The Nitrous Scan is designed to pick up on stocks that have the chance for accelerating moves even as momentum indicators seem to be getting extended.  The list below are intended to be a starting point only.  Once you find charts that look interesting it is up to you to do your own due diligence and build a trade plan in your own style of trading.

ETF Nitrous Scan

ETF Nitrous Scan on FINVIZ

The Nitrous Scan

Nitrous Scan on FINVIZ

The Meltdown Scan

Meltdown on FINVIZ

More about how I came up with this scan here and here.

If you like what you see, follow me on StockTwits or Twitter.
(All market data above comes from Stockcharts.com, Esignal, and Reuters datalink)
The information set forth here was obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy.  Neither the information, nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation by us of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the blog.  Full Disclaimer
There is no guarantee that the views expressed in this communication will become reality,  Investing in the stock market involves risk and potential loss of principal, Investment strategies should be thoroughly researched and understood before implementing and none of this should be construed as a recommendation.

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The Nitrous Scan 6/16/2017

Tags : 

The Nitrous Scan is designed to pick up on stocks that have the chance for accelerating moves even as momentum indicators seem to be getting extended.  The list below are intended to be a starting point only.  Once you find charts that look interesting it is up to you to do your own due diligence and build a trade plan in your own style of trading.

ETF Nitrous Scan

ETF Nitrous Scan on FINVIZ

The Nitrous Scan

Nitrous Scan on FINVIZ

The Meltdown Scan

Meltdown on FINVIZ

More about how I came up with this scan here and here.

If you like what you see, follow me on StockTwits or Twitter.
(All market data above comes from Stockcharts.com, Esignal, and Reuters datalink)
The information set forth here was obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy.  Neither the information, nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation by us of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the blog.  Full Disclaimer
There is no guarantee that the views expressed in this communication will become reality,  Investing in the stock market involves risk and potential loss of principal, Investment strategies should be thoroughly researched and understood before implementing and none of this should be construed as a recommendation.

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The Nitrous Scan 6/13/2017

Tags : 

The Nitrous Scan is designed to pick up on stocks that have the chance for accelerating moves even as momentum indicators seem to be getting extended.  The list below are intended to be a starting point only.  Once you find charts that look interesting it is up to you to do your own due diligence and build a trade plan in your own style of trading.

ETF Nitrous Scan

ETF Nitrous Scan on FINVIZ

The Nitrous Scan

Nitrous Scan on FINVIZ

The Meltdown Scan

Meltdown on FINVIZ

More about how I came up with this scan here and here.

If you like what you see, follow me on StockTwits or Twitter.
(All market data above comes from Stockcharts.com, Esignal, and Reuters datalink)
The information set forth here was obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy.  Neither the information, nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation by us of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the blog.  Full Disclaimer
There is no guarantee that the views expressed in this communication will become reality,  Investing in the stock market involves risk and potential loss of principal, Investment strategies should be thoroughly researched and understood before implementing and none of this should be construed as a recommendation.

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The Nitrous Scan 6/9/2017

Tags : 

The Nitrous Scan is designed to pick up on stocks that have the chance for accelerating moves even as momentum indicators seem to be getting extended.  The list below are intended to be a starting point only.  Once you find charts that look interesting it is up to you to do your own due diligence and build a trade plan in your own style of trading.

ETF Nitrous Scan

ETF Nitrous Scan on FINVIZ

The Nitrous Scan

Nitrous Scan on FINVIZ

The Meltdown Scan

Meltdown on FINVIZ

More about how I came up with this scan here and here.

If you like what you see, follow me on StockTwits or Twitter.
(All market data above comes from Stockcharts.com, Esignal, and Reuters datalink)
The information set forth here was obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy.  Neither the information, nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation by us of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the blog.  Full Disclaimer
There is no guarantee that the views expressed in this communication will become reality,  Investing in the stock market involves risk and potential loss of principal, Investment strategies should be thoroughly researched and understood before implementing and none of this should be construed as a recommendation.

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The Nitrous Scan 6/2/2017

Tags : 

The Nitrous Scan is designed to pick up on stocks that have the chance for accelerating moves even as momentum indicators seem to be getting extended.  The list below are intended to be a starting point only.  Once you find charts that look interesting it is up to you to do your own due diligence and build a trade plan in your own style of trading.

ETF Nitrous Scan

ETF Nitrous Scan on FINVIZ

The Nitrous Scan

Nitrous Scan on FINVIZ

The Meltdown Scan

Meltdown on FINVIZ

More about how I came up with this scan here and here.

If you like what you see, follow me on StockTwits or Twitter.
(All market data above comes from Stockcharts.com, Esignal, and Reuters datalink)
The information set forth here was obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy.  Neither the information, nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation by us of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the blog.  Full Disclaimer
There is no guarantee that the views expressed in this communication will become reality,  Investing in the stock market involves risk and potential loss of principal, Investment strategies should be thoroughly researched and understood before implementing and none of this should be construed as a recommendation.

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The Nitrous Scan 5/12/2017

Tags : 

The Nitrous Scan is designed to pick up on stocks that have the chance for accelerating moves even as momentum indicators seem to be getting extended.  The list below are intended to be a starting point only.  Once you find charts that look interesting it is up to you to do your own due diligence and build a trade plan in your own style of trading.

ETF Nitrous Scan

ETF Nitrous Scan on FINVIZ

The Nitrous Scan

Nitrous Scan on FINVIZ

The Meltdown Scan

Meltdown on FINVIZ

More about how I came up with this scan here and here.

If you like what you see, follow me on StockTwits or Twitter.
(All market data above comes from Stockcharts.com, Esignal, and Reuters datalink)
The information set forth here was obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy.  Neither the information, nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation by us of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the blog.  Full Disclaimer
There is no guarantee that the views expressed in this communication will become reality,  Investing in the stock market involves risk and potential loss of principal, Investment strategies should be thoroughly researched and understood before implementing and none of this should be construed as a recommendation.

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The Nitrous Scan 5/5/2017

Tags : 

The Nitrous Scan is designed to pick up on stocks that have the chance for accelerating moves even as momentum indicators seem to be getting extended.  The list below are intended to be a starting point only.  Once you find charts that look interesting it is up to you to do your own due diligence and build a trade plan in your own style of trading.

ETF Nitrous Scan

ETF Nitrous Scan on FINVIZ

The Nitrous Scan

Nitrous Scan on FINVIZ

The Meltdown Scan

Meltdown on FINVIZ

More about how I came up with this scan here and here.

If you like what you see, follow me on StockTwits or Twitter.
(All market data above comes from Stockcharts.com, Esignal, and Reuters datalink)
The information set forth here was obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy.  Neither the information, nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation by us of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the blog.  Full Disclaimer
There is no guarantee that the views expressed in this communication will become reality,  Investing in the stock market involves risk and potential loss of principal, Investment strategies should be thoroughly researched and understood before implementing and none of this should be construed as a recommendation.

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