Author Archives: Tommy

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Running Down the Triple Play

Pretty easy to see I don’t find much time to blog these days, but I do like it when Month or quarter end come at the end of a week as well.  It makes it easy to start at the top time frame and work our way down the charts to get an idea of where we currently are in the broad markets these follow both individually and in relation to one another.  August ended Friday so we will start with the Monthly charts this time.

It has been a while, so for a quick refresher on these charts check out RSI Chart Explained

Monthly

The monthly trend remains strong after pausing the 1st half of 2018, but now looks to be on the march again.  The RSIs are at or near 80 which should have us alert to changes and are likely to see more volatility up here, but they are not a sell sign in themselves.  I did read someone talking this week about selling once RSI moved over 70, and I couldn’t disagree more, especially on a time frame as long as monthly.  Indicators are for information and alerts price is better suited for actual signals.  It is good to see how this charts is moving and keep it in perspective that things are getting elevated but also moving in a strong trend at the moment.

Weekly

The weekly charts shows the strong trend on this level coming off the Winter pullback/volatility we saw. Coming down to this level you can see that the battle was fought and won by the bulls and we are in the midst of the extension that followed.  Currently the RSIs are  pointing higher but not particularly elevated.  CFGs are nearing the 100 level which is where we start paying more attention, but they can move all the way to the 140-150 level if things get goofy, so 100 again isn’t particularly out there.  $IWM $QQQ are well above their January peaks, but $SPY is just know moving above its level.  This has us on what for a failed breakout at this level which could usher in the seasonality everyone is talking about.  Especially with August being strong, the next drum beat has to be a ugly September and October.  I don’t think it has to happen as many do, so I am keeping my eyes open for an extension higher that keeps everyone off guard; but I do think it would be a decent scenario to see some weakness between Mid September and the elections to allow the markets some digestion time and maybe even a few backtests to strengthen the support zones below.

Daily

The Daily level looks set up more similar to the weekly charts.  Nice pattern breaks recently and a new leg higher. $IWM was the most defined and worked great after finding higher lows at the MA bands 3 times it finally went out the upper rail.  $IWM also finished the month on a strong note.  $SPY $QQQ ended in small consolidations right at the highs.  Nothing to get bearish about, but more digestion would be fine here as long as it stays contained.  While not fearing seasonality, it can be used as a piece of evidence to help guide and potentially adjust things like position sizing and stop placement during a slow period.  Again, we see the CFGs are at or above 100, but can stay up here a while or put in divergences before seeing a larger price top.  Worth noting again, multiple divergences are not uncommon on the upside, so making sure you have some other confirmation is a good idea.

65 minute

The 65 minute chart is the Intraday charts I use most and post when looking at market direction.  If trading very short term, then 5, 15, 30 minute might be worth a look, but they don’t really add value in this kind of analysis very often.  The current 65 min charts are all still in RSI bull ranges with mixed positioning to start the week.  $SPY $QQQ are digesting the strong recent runs since mid August. $IWM is moving too, but in a much more sloppy fashion.  It broke out strong mid August, but has been a battle ever since.  This was another place many were looking for a failed breakout the whole way and every time they felt like they might be getting a foothold, buyers showed back up and pushed $IWM back to highs. A quick look at it’s RSI shows the grinding nature of this move and also gives a good example of why we use RSI Range Rules instead of overbought/oversold signals.

This is just a quick review of how I see the markets going into the current week.  I also see strong breadth underlying these price charts which adds confidence to what we are seeing on the price charts.  This could certainly take a turn at any time change my view along with it, but as we sit now, markets are a leg that started in later July or early August and could persist a while if these dynamics remain in place.

Good Luck and I hope this helps!

If you like what you see, follow me on StockTwits or Twitter.
(All market data above are derived from Stockcharts.com, Esignal, and Reutersdatalink)
The information set forth here was obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy.  Neither the information, nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation by us of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the blog.  Full Disclaimer
There is no guarantee that the views expressed in this communication will become reality,  Investing in the stock market involves risk and potential loss of principal, Investment strategies should be thoroughly researched and understood before implementing and none of this should be construed as a recommendation

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Triple Play Mid Year Review

Once again we have one of those fun quarters where the dates line up on a weekend and we can take a top down view of how things stand. Those who follow my Triple Play Charts regularly on Stocktwits and Twitter know this as one of the momentum based trend gauges we use to guide us through the markets.  I post the same two charts every day which on one hand can get monotonous, but I feel the consistency keeps us updated on the ever changing view of the markets while also helping teach us the personality traits that can give clues in the future.  These periodic posts allow us to stack multiple time frames to get a sort of macro view from a technical perspective of the markets.

(for those new to these charts you can learn more about them here and here)

Quarterly (Index)

The Quarterly charts are made up of Indice since the ETFs don’t have enough data for a good quarterly RSI chart.  The current candles are still solidly bullish in strong RSI bull ranges.  While RSI are getting high, the only potential warning I see right here is the tail on $QQQ as we close out.  Not a lot to hang your hat on; and don’t forget is takes 3 full months to print another candle.  Overbought RSI is a reason to be paying more attention, but with CFGs all still below 100, there still is room higher for now.  Overbought can always become more overbought in strong trends.  However, for most of us, these charts are great for long term perspective and guidance, which for now is still sitting in a long term uptrend in all 3, but hard to trade off of in real life.

Monthly

Dropping down to the monthly ETF charts you see they are also in solid RSI bull ranges with sharp uptrends in $SPY & $QQQ while $IWM has been consolidating on this level much of the year.  However, that also leaves $IWM with a RSI in the sweet spot and set up pretty well if it can clear this current range.  $QQQ had the toughest month, but it was also after putting in the steepest ascent.  It could use some rest, but no not enough evidence yet on this level to expect much more than a normal consolidation/pullback to relieve some pressure.  There are larger divergences forming on this level and are noted, but rarely play out swiftly without a larger catalyst.

Weekly

After seeing the last two levels in solid trends albeit a little elevated in some areas, the weekly charts have already worked off a good bit of their excess without giving up a tremendous amount of ground in price or putting the RSI bull ranges in jeopardy.  all three have room before reaching the MA bands good opportunities for RSI Positive Reversals if the consolidations/pullbacks hold above them.  Again on this level we see the $IWM looks the best set up for a move higher, with $SPY and $QQQ trends stalling a bit after strong runs this spring, but not necessarily destined for strong moves lower. Keep an eye on how the action progresses from here, but so far so good as we move down the charts.

Daily

The daily level is where we start to notice the wear and tear on the trends for both the $SPY and $QQQ as they are testing some important support levels going into the 3rd quarter.  I left $IWM out since it hasn’t really been in a trend all year long even though it is positive after the 1st half.  All three are still holding the RSI bull ranges, so it is hard to get too bearish or throw in the towel as of yet, but the larger cap side is looking shaky as the MA bands are getting tested here.  Going back to $IWM it shows what can happen versus a strong rollover if the $SPY $QQQ do decide to digest the recent runs, but either can eat up intermediate term traders if they are not open to the potential and adjust accordingly.

65 minute

The intraday 65 minute view gets us close enough for most to the current battle to help shape how we approach next week, at least the early part.  $QQQ and $SPY charts show the battles they have been in with both struggling to hold the recent ranges.  This chart shows the month of June start to finish.  To the surprise of many the $IWM was actually the top performer for the month, and even all the way down on this level looks the strongest.  Not exactly strong, but relatively it definitely is set up the best to start the new quarter, again, at least for the 1st part of the week.  The shorter the timeframe of the chart the easier it is to flip the charts look, so as you look back up this list, keep that in mind and use this to help guide your outlook as you move into the 2nd half of 2017 this week.

Good Luck and I hope this helps!

If you like what you see, follow me on StockTwits or Twitter.
(All market data above are derived from Stockcharts.com, Esignal, and Reutersdatalink)
The information set forth here was obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy.  Neither the information, nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation by us of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the blog.  Full Disclaimer
There is no guarantee that the views expressed in this communication will become reality,  Investing in the stock market involves risk and potential loss of principal, Investment strategies should be thoroughly researched and understood before implementing and none of this should be construed as a recommendation

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The Nitrous Scan 6/23/2017

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The Nitrous Scan is designed to pick up on stocks that have the chance for accelerating moves even as momentum indicators seem to be getting extended.  The list below are intended to be a starting point only.  Once you find charts that look interesting it is up to you to do your own due diligence and build a trade plan in your own style of trading.

ETF Nitrous Scan

ETF Nitrous Scan on FINVIZ

The Nitrous Scan

Nitrous Scan on FINVIZ

The Meltdown Scan

Meltdown on FINVIZ

More about how I came up with this scan here and here.

If you like what you see, follow me on StockTwits or Twitter.
(All market data above comes from Stockcharts.com, Esignal, and Reuters datalink)
The information set forth here was obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy.  Neither the information, nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation by us of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the blog.  Full Disclaimer
There is no guarantee that the views expressed in this communication will become reality,  Investing in the stock market involves risk and potential loss of principal, Investment strategies should be thoroughly researched and understood before implementing and none of this should be construed as a recommendation.

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The Nitrous Scan 6/16/2017

Tags : 

The Nitrous Scan is designed to pick up on stocks that have the chance for accelerating moves even as momentum indicators seem to be getting extended.  The list below are intended to be a starting point only.  Once you find charts that look interesting it is up to you to do your own due diligence and build a trade plan in your own style of trading.

ETF Nitrous Scan

ETF Nitrous Scan on FINVIZ

The Nitrous Scan

Nitrous Scan on FINVIZ

The Meltdown Scan

Meltdown on FINVIZ

More about how I came up with this scan here and here.

If you like what you see, follow me on StockTwits or Twitter.
(All market data above comes from Stockcharts.com, Esignal, and Reuters datalink)
The information set forth here was obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy.  Neither the information, nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation by us of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the blog.  Full Disclaimer
There is no guarantee that the views expressed in this communication will become reality,  Investing in the stock market involves risk and potential loss of principal, Investment strategies should be thoroughly researched and understood before implementing and none of this should be construed as a recommendation.

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The Nitrous Scan 6/13/2017

Tags : 

The Nitrous Scan is designed to pick up on stocks that have the chance for accelerating moves even as momentum indicators seem to be getting extended.  The list below are intended to be a starting point only.  Once you find charts that look interesting it is up to you to do your own due diligence and build a trade plan in your own style of trading.

ETF Nitrous Scan

ETF Nitrous Scan on FINVIZ

The Nitrous Scan

Nitrous Scan on FINVIZ

The Meltdown Scan

Meltdown on FINVIZ

More about how I came up with this scan here and here.

If you like what you see, follow me on StockTwits or Twitter.
(All market data above comes from Stockcharts.com, Esignal, and Reuters datalink)
The information set forth here was obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy.  Neither the information, nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation by us of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the blog.  Full Disclaimer
There is no guarantee that the views expressed in this communication will become reality,  Investing in the stock market involves risk and potential loss of principal, Investment strategies should be thoroughly researched and understood before implementing and none of this should be construed as a recommendation.

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The Nitrous Scan 6/9/2017

Tags : 

The Nitrous Scan is designed to pick up on stocks that have the chance for accelerating moves even as momentum indicators seem to be getting extended.  The list below are intended to be a starting point only.  Once you find charts that look interesting it is up to you to do your own due diligence and build a trade plan in your own style of trading.

ETF Nitrous Scan

ETF Nitrous Scan on FINVIZ

The Nitrous Scan

Nitrous Scan on FINVIZ

The Meltdown Scan

Meltdown on FINVIZ

More about how I came up with this scan here and here.

If you like what you see, follow me on StockTwits or Twitter.
(All market data above comes from Stockcharts.com, Esignal, and Reuters datalink)
The information set forth here was obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy.  Neither the information, nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation by us of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the blog.  Full Disclaimer
There is no guarantee that the views expressed in this communication will become reality,  Investing in the stock market involves risk and potential loss of principal, Investment strategies should be thoroughly researched and understood before implementing and none of this should be construed as a recommendation.

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The Nitrous Scan 6/2/2017

Tags : 

The Nitrous Scan is designed to pick up on stocks that have the chance for accelerating moves even as momentum indicators seem to be getting extended.  The list below are intended to be a starting point only.  Once you find charts that look interesting it is up to you to do your own due diligence and build a trade plan in your own style of trading.

ETF Nitrous Scan

ETF Nitrous Scan on FINVIZ

The Nitrous Scan

Nitrous Scan on FINVIZ

The Meltdown Scan

Meltdown on FINVIZ

More about how I came up with this scan here and here.

If you like what you see, follow me on StockTwits or Twitter.
(All market data above comes from Stockcharts.com, Esignal, and Reuters datalink)
The information set forth here was obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy.  Neither the information, nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation by us of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the blog.  Full Disclaimer
There is no guarantee that the views expressed in this communication will become reality,  Investing in the stock market involves risk and potential loss of principal, Investment strategies should be thoroughly researched and understood before implementing and none of this should be construed as a recommendation.

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The Nitrous Scan 5/12/2017

Tags : 

The Nitrous Scan is designed to pick up on stocks that have the chance for accelerating moves even as momentum indicators seem to be getting extended.  The list below are intended to be a starting point only.  Once you find charts that look interesting it is up to you to do your own due diligence and build a trade plan in your own style of trading.

ETF Nitrous Scan

ETF Nitrous Scan on FINVIZ

The Nitrous Scan

Nitrous Scan on FINVIZ

The Meltdown Scan

Meltdown on FINVIZ

More about how I came up with this scan here and here.

If you like what you see, follow me on StockTwits or Twitter.
(All market data above comes from Stockcharts.com, Esignal, and Reuters datalink)
The information set forth here was obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy.  Neither the information, nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation by us of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the blog.  Full Disclaimer
There is no guarantee that the views expressed in this communication will become reality,  Investing in the stock market involves risk and potential loss of principal, Investment strategies should be thoroughly researched and understood before implementing and none of this should be construed as a recommendation.

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The Nitrous Scan 5/5/2017

Tags : 

The Nitrous Scan is designed to pick up on stocks that have the chance for accelerating moves even as momentum indicators seem to be getting extended.  The list below are intended to be a starting point only.  Once you find charts that look interesting it is up to you to do your own due diligence and build a trade plan in your own style of trading.

ETF Nitrous Scan

ETF Nitrous Scan on FINVIZ

The Nitrous Scan

Nitrous Scan on FINVIZ

The Meltdown Scan

Meltdown on FINVIZ

More about how I came up with this scan here and here.

If you like what you see, follow me on StockTwits or Twitter.
(All market data above comes from Stockcharts.com, Esignal, and Reuters datalink)
The information set forth here was obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy.  Neither the information, nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation by us of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the blog.  Full Disclaimer
There is no guarantee that the views expressed in this communication will become reality,  Investing in the stock market involves risk and potential loss of principal, Investment strategies should be thoroughly researched and understood before implementing and none of this should be construed as a recommendation.

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The Nitrous Scan 4/28/2017

Tags : 

The Nitrous Scan is designed to pick up on stocks that have the chance for accelerating moves even as momentum indicators seem to be getting extended.  The list below are intended to be a starting point only.  Once you find charts that look interesting it is up to you to do your own due diligence and build a trade plan in your own style of trading.

ETF Nitrous Scan

ETF Nitrous Scan on FINVIZ

The Nitrous Scan

Nitrous Scan on FINVIZ

The Meltdown Scan

Meltdown on FINVIZ

More about how I came up with this scan here and here.

If you like what you see, follow me on StockTwits or Twitter.
(All market data above comes from Stockcharts.com, Esignal, and Reuters datalink)
The information set forth here was obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy.  Neither the information, nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation by us of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the blog.  Full Disclaimer
There is no guarantee that the views expressed in this communication will become reality,  Investing in the stock market involves risk and potential loss of principal, Investment strategies should be thoroughly researched and understood before implementing and none of this should be construed as a recommendation.

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