Triple Play Mid Year Review
Once again we have one of those fun quarters where the dates line up on a weekend and we can take a top down view of how things stand. Those who follow my Triple Play Charts regularly on Stocktwits and Twitter know this as one of the momentum based trend gauges we use to guide us through the markets. I post the same two charts every day which on one hand can get monotonous, but I feel the consistency keeps us updated on the ever changing view of the markets while also helping teach us the personality traits that can give clues in the future. These periodic posts allow us to stack multiple time frames to get a sort of macro view from a technical perspective of the markets.
(for those new to these charts you can learn more about them here and here)
Quarterly (Index)
The Quarterly charts are made up of Indice since the ETFs don’t have enough data for a good quarterly RSI chart. The current candles are still solidly bullish in strong RSI bull ranges. While RSI are getting high, the only potential warning I see right here is the tail on $QQQ as we close out. Not a lot to hang your hat on; and don’t forget is takes 3 full months to print another candle. Overbought RSI is a reason to be paying more attention, but with CFGs all still below 100, there still is room higher for now. Overbought can always become more overbought in strong trends. However, for most of us, these charts are great for long term perspective and guidance, which for now is still sitting in a long term uptrend in all 3, but hard to trade off of in real life.
Monthly
Dropping down to the monthly ETF charts you see they are also in solid RSI bull ranges with sharp uptrends in $SPY & $QQQ while $IWM has been consolidating on this level much of the year. However, that also leaves $IWM with a RSI in the sweet spot and set up pretty well if it can clear this current range. $QQQ had the toughest month, but it was also after putting in the steepest ascent. It could use some rest, but no not enough evidence yet on this level to expect much more than a normal consolidation/pullback to relieve some pressure. There are larger divergences forming on this level and are noted, but rarely play out swiftly without a larger catalyst.
Weekly
After seeing the last two levels in solid trends albeit a little elevated in some areas, the weekly charts have already worked off a good bit of their excess without giving up a tremendous amount of ground in price or putting the RSI bull ranges in jeopardy. all three have room before reaching the MA bands good opportunities for RSI Positive Reversals if the consolidations/pullbacks hold above them. Again on this level we see the $IWM looks the best set up for a move higher, with $SPY and $QQQ trends stalling a bit after strong runs this spring, but not necessarily destined for strong moves lower. Keep an eye on how the action progresses from here, but so far so good as we move down the charts.
Daily
The daily level is where we start to notice the wear and tear on the trends for both the $SPY and $QQQ as they are testing some important support levels going into the 3rd quarter. I left $IWM out since it hasn’t really been in a trend all year long even though it is positive after the 1st half. All three are still holding the RSI bull ranges, so it is hard to get too bearish or throw in the towel as of yet, but the larger cap side is looking shaky as the MA bands are getting tested here. Going back to $IWM it shows what can happen versus a strong rollover if the $SPY $QQQ do decide to digest the recent runs, but either can eat up intermediate term traders if they are not open to the potential and adjust accordingly.
65 minute
The intraday 65 minute view gets us close enough for most to the current battle to help shape how we approach next week, at least the early part. $QQQ and $SPY charts show the battles they have been in with both struggling to hold the recent ranges. This chart shows the month of June start to finish. To the surprise of many the $IWM was actually the top performer for the month, and even all the way down on this level looks the strongest. Not exactly strong, but relatively it definitely is set up the best to start the new quarter, again, at least for the 1st part of the week. The shorter the timeframe of the chart the easier it is to flip the charts look, so as you look back up this list, keep that in mind and use this to help guide your outlook as you move into the 2nd half of 2017 this week.
Good Luck and I hope this helps!
